War in Ukraine: why Bakhmut is at the center of one of the bloodiest battles of the conflict

Heavy and stubborn battles for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region have been going on for more than seven months. According to local authorities, 60% of the city has been destroyed. Both Moscow and Kyiv claim that the other side has suffered heavy losses.

In February, Western observers began to speculate that Ukrainian forces might abandon the defense of Bakhmut and instead focus on their own counter-offensives. But why is the battle for Bakhmut still going on?

Bakhmut is of strategic importance?

According to Western analysts, Russia’s initial attacks on Bakhmut may have been part of a wider plan to encircle Ukrainian army units near Kramatorsk and Slavyansk.

Constant shelling of the eastern city began in mid-May last year, followed by a series of battles for control of its roads.

It is believed that the assault on Moscow began on August 1. But after just three weeks, the offensive appeared to fizzle out, and between September and October, Ukraine launched a successful counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region, short of the Russian border.

After that, the Russian military leaders lost interest in Bakhmut. But by that time, troops from both sides were already bogged down in stubborn battles for the city.

“Unfortunately, what happens is like Verdun: when a lot of people start dying for a place, it doesn’t really matter. You have already spent blood capital,” explained Patrick Bury, assistant professor at the University of Bath.

“And then because of this bloody waste, it becomes politically significant. Once people start attacking and need to win, it takes on a whole little world of its own,” he told Euronews.

What does Bakhmut mean for Moscow?

For Russia, Bakhmut is a theoretical opportunity to declare victory, to “compensate” for the military failures suffered last year. Indeed, in December, Ukrainian and Western observers reported that Bakhmut had become Moscow’s main target and that it had sent significant forces to capture him.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu called Bakhmut the key to a further offensive in the Donbass. But Western experts doubt that Russia will be able to build on its success if the city is taken.

“The Russians have not yet demonstrated that they are capable of making breakthroughs in the way that Ukraine did,” Bury explained.

“Russian logistics is pretty bad, right? So, if they break through, they will still be hampered by the logistics problems that existed before,” he added.

What does Bakhmut mean for Kyiv?

For Ukraine, Bakhmut has become a symbol of heroic resistance. Kyiv notes that protracted fighting in the city area has pinned down many Russian troops, preventing Moscow from conducting offensive operations elsewhere and inflicting heavy losses on Russian troops in manpower and equipment.

NATO estimates that for every Ukrainian casualty in Bakhmut, five Russians are killed.

“What is really happening is that the Ukrainians are using it as a defensive fight, basically as a standard fight at this stage to inflict as many casualties as possible on the Russian attackers with the least possible casualties to themselves, before striking back. a blow or two against Russia at the time Ukraine chooses, and also in the place it chooses,” Bury told Euronews.

Conflict between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense

The Russian battle for Bakhmut also has a unique dimension. The mercenaries of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner PMC played a key role in Russia’s search for the city.

The businessman, in fact, is in open conflict with the leadership of the Russian armed forces, up to the exchange of insults with the head of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

Experts argue that Prigozhin’s ambitions may be one factor explaining the raging battle for Bakhmut.

This became known when Wagner […] really came to power and kind of said: “We will do it, we will show you how to win.” The Russian army is incompetent, and we will do it!” And then they throw it all away [it]This was reported by Bury Euronews.

Now success or failure near Bakhmut could decide the fate of PMCs and Prigogine himself.