The Iranian regime is close to having a nuclear bomb, but what’s the delay?

JERUSALEM. Iran dangerously close to enriching weapons uranium for a nuclear bombbut the regime has not yet crossed the critical threshold of announcing that it has built an atomic weapon.

Fox News Digital reached out to experts on Iran’s more than two decade long quest to join the small group of nations with nuclear weapons to explain what’s stopping Tehran from crossing the nuclear threshold.

“If there is any reason to believe that there are a number of retardants who have put a pause in the development of their weapons, then they are associated with targeted attacks by the US and Israel, who are clearly very concerned about stopping the mullahs.” said Lisa Daftary, Iran expert and editor-in-chief of Foreign Desk.

Daftari added: “Israel has reportedly carried out at least two dozen targeted operations against the Iranian regime over the past 15 or so years, including drone attacks, cyberattacks, if you remember Stuxnet, and assassinations of key players in Iran’s nuclear program.”

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Flag of the IAEA

An Iranian flag flies in front of the International Center building at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Florian Schretter, FILE)

“We cannot underestimate the strength of international pressure on the Iranian regime,” Daftari told Fox News Digital.

“This pressure has been provided under the current administration, which, moving away from the nuclear deal, still hopes to revive some form of normalization agreement with Tehran. Otherwise, when there is consistent and targeted pressure on the Iranian regime in the form of forced sanctions and economic and political isolation, we see a weakened regime and an emboldened Iranian people who are brave enough to take to the streets,” she said.

Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser to the Iranian regime’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasted last year that “Iran is on the nuclear threshold and it’s not something secret,” according to a 2022 report in the state-controlled Tehran Times. .

Just this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Iranian regime was enriching uranium to 84% purity, 6% below normal. 90% enriched uranium needed for nuclear weapon.

Iranian military parade

An Iranian military truck carries surface-to-air missiles past a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a parade marking the country’s annual army day April 18, 2018 in Tehran. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)

The Iranian regime is testing the resolve of the US and other world powers, which have repeatedly said they will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Israel sees Tehran’s atomic weapons program as an existential threat because Tehran has often said it seeks to destroy it.

“It’s an open question whether Khamenei wants to die as the father of the Shia atomic bomb or as the one who kept the Islamic Republic on the nuclear path without provoking a war or pulling the trigger,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at Fox News, told Fox News. Digital said an Iran expert from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.

“However, for the time being, Khamenei’s perception of success in diplomacy and security policy abroad and dominance at all costs at home may be enough to push him over the edge as he continues to age,” added Taleblu, who recently wrote a comprehensive assessment. Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities and Intentions.

Fox News Digital reported this week that Iran is digging deep tunnels near the top of the Zagros Mountains in central Iran to protect a nuclear facility from conventional attacks.

Iranian centrifuges.

This file photo was posted in November. November 5, 2019 The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, file)

In addition to the technological obstacles to building modern nuclear weapons, the Iranian regime has faced Israeli and United States deterrence over the years, including Computer worm Stuxnet sabotage regime nuclear fuel production systems.

“I think Iran’s leadership has by now calculated that the costs of doing so will outweigh the benefits at this stage – basically a devastating attack targeting its entire nuclear infrastructure,” Jason Brodsky, political director of the United States-based Unite Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), Fox News Digital reported.

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Jake Sullivan

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan speaks at a press briefing at the White House on March 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

“But I am concerned that the calculations are in danger of changing as the lack of a US and European response to Iran’s nuclear escalation over the past two years — for example, 60% enrichment and production of uranium metal — has emboldened Tehran’s leadership to continue testing international red lines.”

Brodsky added that “if this perception does not change, Iran will probably enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels of 90%. Tehran’s risk aversion to date shows that it can be contained. But that could change quickly if the Islamic Republic doesn’t get pushed back as it advances its nuclear program.”

Earlier this month This was stated by US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. said in a speech before the Washington Institute for Near East Policy that the Biden administration “made it clear to Iran that it would never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. As President Biden has repeatedly affirmed, he will take the necessary action. support this statement, including recognizing Israel’s freedom of action.”

“We have restored unity of purpose between the United States and Europe and most of the world against Iranian provocations and nuclear activities,” he said, noting also that the US was pressuring “Iran with sanctions.”

Hajizade

Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri and IRGC Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizade stand together during the launch of the Kheybar Sheka missile at an undisclosed location in Iran. 9, 2022. (West Asia News Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

“Iran did not cross the threshold of developing a nuclear weapon because the supreme leader did not decide to arm the program,” said former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Joel Rubin. Obama administrationFox News Digital reported.

“This position has been confirmed by numerous assessments by the American intelligence community over the past few years.” He continued: “While only the supreme leader can truly say why he took this position, it is known that the continued diplomatic isolation by the international community following the expansion of its nuclear program is hurting the Iranian regime.”

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Rubin said it was clear that Tehran was “still open to following the diplomatic path because it knows that if it moves to weapons-grade nuclear arsenals, which it is capable of, the country will be further isolated internationally – even from the outside.” their allies. This will provoke a regional nuclear arms race, and Tehran will never get out of the sanctions pressure that it is now experiencing,” he said.

“It is clear from recent years that a firm, verifiable diplomatic agreement with Iran over its nuclear program is the best way to ensure it never gets a nuclear weapon. We will not achieve this by military threats alone,” Rubin concluded.

Multiple ships

US Central Command and the IDF are participating in a joint military exercise known as Exercise Juniper Oak, which is taking place in Israel and the eastern Mediterranean. (Office of the IDF Spokesperson)

According to Israeli media reports, a low-intensity military containment of the Iranian regime has been carried out for a number of years.

“We have the ability to strike at Iran,” the Israeli defense minister said. warned this week.

In February, the US military and the Israel Defense Forces launched a joint Juniper Falcon exercise. The IDF website states: “The exercise tested the collective US-Israeli readiness and strengthened interoperability between the two armed forces,” the IDF said on its website after the exercise.

However, there are growing concerns that the Biden administration is not putting enough pressure on the Iranian regime to change its behavior. More than 100 former world leaders called on Biden this week be hard on Iran.

Earlier this week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly said during a visit to the Hatzor Air Force Base that Israel is preparing for a “difficult, difficult and more important goal.”

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, points to the red line he drew on the image of a bomb while addressing the UN General Assembly. December 27, 2012 in New York. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

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Military deterrence has been the biggest factor in slowing down Iran’s illegal nuclear program. The saber-rattling of the United States influenced the behavior of the Islamic Republic.

In 2007, a declassified U.S. national intelligence assessment determined with “high confidence” that the Iranian regime ended its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Iranian experts believe that the Islamic Republic temporarily stopped its illegal nuclear program because of the US invasion of Iraq, and fear that the US will launch a military invasion of Iran.

The very survival of the Iranian regime forced then Supreme Leader Khomeini to agree to a ceasefire with Iraq in 1988 after eight years of war. At the time, he likened the trick to drinking from a “cup of poison”.

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American pressure prompted Khomeini to release US hostages in 1981 during a diplomatic crisis. All these examples show that the Iranian regime is extremely vulnerable to military pressure and other forms of influence that threaten its legitimacy and existence.

“The Iranian regime is quite calculating,” Daftari said. “Scammers as they are, hijacking oil tankers at sea, continuing to support regional terror and, of course, mass brutal executions of innocent protesters, they continue to weigh the consequences of a sharp military confrontation with Israel or the United States.”