Noticias de dinero

Job release and business cycle indicators

The 263,000 increase in NFP employment is surprising on the positive side (against Bloomberg consensus of 200,000). This is the resulting picture for some of the key metrics followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm Employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg Consensus Dec 1 (blue+), Civil Sector Employment (orange), Industrial Production (Red),

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Business Cycle Indicators as of December 2022

With the release of personal consumption and income data for October, we have the following picture of key series followed by NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP from IHS Markit, formerly from Macroeconomic Advisors). Figure 1: Nonfarm Employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg Consensus Dec 1 (blue+), Civil Sector Employment (orange), Industrial Production (Red), Personal Income

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Four high-frequency indicators for the economy

These indicators are mainly for travel and entertainment. It has been interesting to watch these sectors recover as the impact of the pandemic eases. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Authority —– TSA provides daily trips. The date is November 27th. Click on the graph to enlarge the image. This data shows TSA’s 7-day average daily ridership

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Four high-frequency indicators for the economy

These indicators are mainly for travel and entertainment. It has been interesting to watch these sectors recover as the impact of the pandemic eases. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Authority —– TSA provides daily trips. The date is November 20th. Click on the graph to enlarge the image. This data shows TSA’s 7-day average daily ridership

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Business cycle indicators for mid-November

Industrial production decreased by 0.1% m/m compared to the previous month. Bloomberg consensus +0.2. NFP employment rose strongly in October. Other key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. Figure 1: Nonfarm Employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg Consensus Nov 16 (blue+), Civil Sector Employment (orange), Industrial Production (Red), Personal Income excluding transfers in

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Four high-frequency indicators for the economy

These indicators are mainly for travel and entertainment. It has been interesting to watch these sectors recover as the impact of the pandemic eases. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Authority —– TSA provides daily trips. The date is November 13th. Click on the graph to enlarge the image. This data shows TSA’s 7-day average daily ridership

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Four high-frequency indicators for the economy

These indicators are mainly for travel and entertainment. It has been interesting to watch these sectors recover as the impact of the pandemic eases. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Authority —– TSA provides daily trips. This date is November 6th. Click on the graph to enlarge the image. This data shows TSA’s 7-day average daily ridership

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Business cycle indicators at the beginning of November

and on the eve of the October employment report. With Tuesday’s monthly GDP and last week’s consumption and income, we have the following picture of some key series, followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC): Figure 1: Nonfarm Employment, NFP (Dark Blue), Bloomberg Consensus November 3 (Blue+), Civil Employment (Orange), Industrial Production

READ MORE
Noticias de dinero

Four high-frequency indicators for the economy

on Estimated risk per 31.10.2022 08:29:00 These indicators are mainly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. —– Airlines: Transportation Security Authority —– TSA provides daily trips. This date is October 30th. Click on the graph to enlarge the image. This data shows TSA’s 7-day average

READ MORE