March 23, 2023
This article is a local version of our Disrupted Times newsletter. Sign here receive a newsletter directly to your inbox three times a week Today’s top news The UK economy has recovered better than expected 0.3% in January, helped by growth in the services sector. The UK is still the only G7 economy that has
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Minneapolis CNN — February job postings there was something for everyone. There were jobs for workers; for employers, workers were making up the shortfall caused by the pandemic; for the Federal Reserve, there have been signs that the labor market is weakening and wage pressures are easing. On the other hand, the total number of
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February Wisconsin Economic Outlook just released yesterday. The same was true for Wisconsin employment estimates for January 2023 (including annual benchmark revisions). What does the forecast look like taking into account the revision of the data? Not bad in the short term. Over the next year – reflecting the outlook for the nation – not
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NFP employment growth of 311K beat Bloomberg’s consensus of 205K. The number confirms the continued strength of the overall economy, at least according to key indicators, followed by NBER BCDC’s monthly GDP plus S&P Global (nee IHS Markit). Picture 1: Non-farm employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg 3/9 consensus (blue+), civil sector employment (orange), industrial production
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To Estimated risk per 03/10/2023 09:21:00 The total number of jobs in the February jobs report beat expectations, however, the number of jobs for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000 combined. The participation rate increased and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. In the field of leisure and hospitality, 105,000 jobs were
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• First, as of January, there were 2.70 million more jobs than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic). This graph shows the percentage of job losses since the start of the employment recession. As of June 2022, the total number of jobs exceeded the pre-pandemic level. • ADP report: ADP Busy Report showed
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The quarterly census of employment and wages was released today. Recalling that some observers argued that the recession occurred in H1 2022 (and/or Q2 2022) as the household survey and QCEW data leveled off. Taking into account the revised data for the first and second quarters and the new data for the third quarter, we
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May be. From Englander/Hewin to Standard Charter (closed): The BD adjustment for the third quarter of 2022 added 294,000 NFP jobs. This seems a bit overpriced to us as QCEW didn’t post as much net job growth in Q3 by opening fewer closures than it did in 2020 during the initial post-COVID recovery. Moreover, total
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Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey was released on Friday. The average forecast has improved significantly since the beginning of January. Picture 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Professional Forecasters Survey Feb 2023 median (red), Nov 2022 (light green), WSJ median Jan 2023 (turquoise), FT-IGM median (tan square) and IMF WEO forecast for January 2023 (blue
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Survey of Professional Forecasters February Survey was released on Friday. The average forecast has improved significantly since the beginning of January. Picture 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Professional Forecasters Survey Feb 2023 median (red), Nov 2022 (light green), WSJ median Jan 2023 (turquoise), FT-IGM median (tan square) and IMF WEO forecast for January 2023 (blue
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