State coincidence indices rose in 20 states in October

on Estimated risk per 25.11.2022 09:15:00

From Philadelphia:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released the 50-state matching indices for October 2022. Over the past three months, indices have risen in 36 states, declined in 11 states and held steady in three, in line with a three-month diffusion index. out of 50. In addition, in the last month indices rose in 20 states, declined in 22 states and remained stable in eight, with a monthly diffusion index of -4. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar match index for the entire United States. The US Philadelphia Fed index rose 0.7% over the past three months and 0.1% in October.
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Note. These are coinciding indexes based on government employment data. Explanation from the Philadelphia Fed:

Coincident Indices combines four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each overlapping index are non-farm payroll employment, average hours worked by manufacturing workers in manufacturing, unemployment rates, and wage payments deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend of each state’s index follows the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in a state’s index corresponds to long-term growth in its GDP.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Coincidence Map
Click on the map to enlarge the image.

Here is a map of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s 3-month coincidence indicators. This the map was all red during the worst times of the pandemic, as well as the worst years of the Great Recession.

The card is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philadelphia Fed.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Number of states with growing activityAnd here is a graph of the number of states with an increase in activity in one month, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

This graph includes states with a slight increase (Philadelphia Fed lists unchanged).

In October, 23 states saw an increase in activity, including a slight increase.