Schedule for the week from March 19, 2023

To Estimated risk per 03/18/2023 8:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are new and existing home sales for February.

The FOMC meeting is scheduled for this week and there is some uncertainty around rate hikes due to recent banking problems.

—– Monday, March 20 —–

There are no major economic releases planned.

—– Tuesday, March 21 —–

Sale of existing houses10:00 AM: Sale of existing houses for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is 4.15 million SAARs, up from 4.00 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 to last month’s report.

Housing Economist Tom Lawler is waiting NAR will report sales of 4.51 million SAAR for February (well above consensus).

—– Wednesday, March 22 —–

7:00 am ET: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to release results mortgage bid index.

Afternoon: AIA Billings Architectural Index February (leading indicator for commercial real estate).

14:00: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting, although there is some uncertainty due to problems with banks.

14:00: Fed forecasts. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ forecasts for the corresponding federal funds rate target, as well as updated economic forecasts.

14:30: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

—– Thursday, March 23 —–

8:30 am: initial weekly jobless claims the report will be published. The consensus concerns 190,000 initial claims, up from 192,000 last week.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February. This is a composite index of other data.

Sale of a new house10:00 AM: Sale of a new house February from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows new home sales since 1963. The dotted line is the sales level for the last month.

The consensus is 650,000 SAARs compared to 670,000 in January.

11:00: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Manufacturing Sector Survey for March.

—– Friday, March 24 —–

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders February from the Census Bureau. The consensus calls for a 1.2% increase in orders for durable goods.

10:00 AM: Government Employment and Unemployment (monthly)February 2023