Russia and China united against the US, but not in everything else

When Xi Jinping from China and Vladimir Putin from Russia sat down together in Moscow on Monday the trappings were the trappings of imperial power, and friendliness hung heavily in the air.

They addressed each other as “dear friend”. They chatted as they sat in ornate armchairs in the gilded salon. On Tuesday, the two autocratic presidents will dine at a state banquet in the richly frescoed hall used by a long line of Russian tsars.

It was a clear message two great powers unite — along with the conspicuous absence of a third: the United States.

Xi Jinping’s three-day visit to Moscow is the clearest symbol of deepening ties between two countries that have historically had tense relations but now find common ground in US direct call and West. Analysts say China and Russia intend to fundamentally reshape the architecture of the world order in their favor and abandon the rules that governed post-World War II Western-dominated geopolitical arrangements.

Chinese President Xi Jinping receives a Russian guard of honor upon his arrival in Moscow.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) greets a Russian guard of honor on Monday during a welcome ceremony upon his arrival in Moscow on a state visit.

(Xie Huanchi/Xinhua News Agency)

This goal was both advanced and complicated on the war in Ukrainewhich is now approaching its 13-month mark.

Shortly before Russian tanks crossed the border on 21 February. On February 24, 2022, Putin and Xi met on the fields of the Beijing Winter Olympics and announced “limitless cooperation.” Since then, China has professed support for Russia, disapproving of the invasion outright, and refrained from joining sanctions against Moscow.

But Xi must carefully calibrate his support, analysts say, lest he be tainted by Putin’s international condemnation. Last week the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for the arrest of the President of Russia and an assistant on alleged war crimes, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia, the first such charge brought in connection with the Russian invasion.

Throughout the war, China has tried to maintain a delicate balance between developing its political and economic relationship with Russia without alienating other countries it is counting on to help its COVID-hit economy get back on its feet. But it has become more difficult to endure, as Russia has suffered heavy losses in Ukraine and is counting on Beijing’s military and diplomatic support.

“The Chinese want to maintain a strategic partnership, but they also want to protect their reputation and economic interests,” said Joseph Torigian, a professor at American University’s School of International Service. “What the Chinese don’t want is to look like they are facilitating Russian aggression.”

At the same time, Xi seems confident that he can outsmart Washington and secure a greater role for Beijing on the world stage. China this month made an agreement restoring diplomatic relations between sworn rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, demonstrating its ability to make deals where the US cannot, and defiantly engaging longtime, if problematic, US ally Saudi Arabia.

Beijing’s intensified diplomatic activity included an attempt to act as a potential peacekeeper in Ukraine. China recently put forward a 12-point plan it said it was a roadmap for cessation of hostilities, which, unsurprisingly, was beneficial to Russia.

The US has been sharply critical of both Xi’s trip to Moscow and his government’s proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Xi’s high-profile visit immediately after the ICC warrant suggests that “China does not feel obligated to hold the Kremlin accountable for atrocities committed in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken said Monday at a news conference in Washington. Beijing is “more likely to provide Russia with diplomatic cover so that it continues to commit the same crimes.”

Line of dignitaries in the huge hall of the Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the official welcoming ceremony at the Kremlin on Tuesday.

(Pavel Byrkin/Kremlin pool, photo)

Regarding Beijing’s peace plan, Blinken said strengthening the current positions of Russian and Ukrainian forces “would be in fact support for the ratification of the Russian conquest.”

“The world should not be deceived by any tactical move by Russia – backed by China or any other country – to freeze the war on its own terms,” he said.

US officials said China is also considering sending artillery shells to Russia, although they have warned his Beijing colleagues against providing military support. If Beijing does deliver weapons to Russia, analysts say, it could irreparably damage China’s relations with the US and other Western countries, crossing a line Xi has evaded so far.

“If China takes the step of providing Russia with a serious amount of weapons and ammunition, this will send the US-China relationship into a state from which they may never recover,” Diana Choileva, chief economist at Enodo Economics, a consulting firm focused on to China. , the report said last week.

Answering a question about the possibility of China supplying artillery to Russia, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin reiterated the need for peace talks and criticized the United States for sending weapons to Ukraineaccording to reading Monday’s news briefing.

Kyiv is playing its cautious game. To date, he has ruled out accepting any Russian territorial takeovers, but has been careful not to criticize Beijing for its ceasefire proposal. In his overnight address to compatriots on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is reportedly on the phone with the Chinese leader later this week, did not mention the Moscow summit.

In many ways, China and Russia are complementary partners, even though Moscow is now a junior power after decades of economic, political and military dominance during the Cold War. Despite recent downturns, China has a strong economy with access to markets and raw materials around the world and formidable corps of diplomats “warrior-wolf” struggle for the interests of Beijing.

Russia is more isolated, its economy hurt by international sanctions, the cost of the war in Ukraine, chronic corruption and mismanagement. But Russia also has large reserves of oil, natural gas and other goods that China needs.

“It’s kind of like a marriage of convenience,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

China provided economic support to Russia through the purchase of oil and gas and export of technologies such as semiconductors. According to Chinese customs data, bilateral trade between the two countries grew by 34% in 2022 to a record high of $190 billion.

Xi is also playing to another audience, the so-called Global South, mainly the developing countries of the southern hemisphere, where China has found a fertile field for diplomacy and the exploitation of minerals and other riches, and where Xi will more easily pose as a balanced conflict mediator, he said. Evan Feigenbaum is a former senior State Department official specializing in Asia who is now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Partnership with Putin’s Russia is not free, because Beijing pays a reputational priceespecially with Europe,” Feigenbaum wrote in an essay on the CEIP website. “But a partnership with an albatross in Moscow will pay dividends for China as well.”

Beijing, he wrote, “is unlikely to leave Xi’s visit empty-handed. … This will allow us to win contracts, ensure Russia’s permanent economic dependence on China, and more closely link the resource-producing and consuming sectors of the two countries.”

While Russia has framed Xi’s visit as evidence of strengthening ties – and unleashed bombastic anti-Western rhetoric touting it – Chinese officials are taking a more subtle tone. But China has echoed Russian concerns about NATO expansion and criticized the US for its military assistance to Ukraine.

The possible outcome of the war in Ukraine could have major implications for Xi’s concept of “national renaissance,” including his desire to Taiwan’s insular democracy under the control of the Communist Party.

Moscow becomes first international destination for Chinese President after starting its third five-year plan at the head of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi met with Putin dozens of times during his years in office; his first state visit to Russia as president took place in 2013. On Tuesday in Moscow, he said he had invited Putin to Beijing later this year.

“This summit is a very clear indication that when it comes to the geopolitics of the next decade or more, China is very determined to show its support for Russia,” said Rana Mitter, a China expert at Oxford University. “China finds it very useful to have Russia as a partner that cannot say no.

Perhaps remembering the reputational blow dealt to China in Europe due to its tacit acceptance of Putin’s actionsChina’s top diplomat Wang Yi visited France, Italy and Hungary last month in what was seen as an attempt to defuse strained relations.

Analysts believe that while Xi’s meeting with Putin could undermine these initiatives, even engaging in a conversation on Ukraine could heighten the perception of China as an important player in international affairs.

“It gives him [Xi’s] the ability to be a global statesman is more supportive,” said Ja Yan Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “It may be intangible or tangible, but it strengthens China’s position and that’s what Xi wanted.”

Wilkinson reported from Washington DC and Yang from Taipei, Taiwan. Laura King contributed to this report from Berlin.