Reformists with a slight advantage in the parliamentary elections in Bulgaria

The reformist coalition led by former Prime Minister Kirill Petkov is the likely winner of Bulgaria’s parliamentary elections after exit poll results showed it came first on Sunday.

An exit poll conducted by Gallup International showed that the coalition between the We Keep on Changing party and the right-wing Democratic Bulgaria gained 25.6%, apparently ousting ex-premier of the centre-right GERB party Boyko Borisov from 24.8%.

If the official results of the exit poll are confirmed, Petkov’s coalition will receive a mandate to form a cabinet.

However, it looks like it will not be easy for him to find allies to form a ruling coalition in a fragmented parliament.

In their first comments, political scientists predicted that the results, which do not differ significantly from the results of the previous four elections held within the last two years, could lead to the creation of a capable coalition and do not rule out the possibility of new elections.

Bulgaria, the poorest member of the European Union, held its fifth general election in two years, and political leaders hoped it would end government instability and pave the way for overcoming the economic problems caused by the war in Ukraine.

But the low voter turnout, estimated at 40%, is indicative of widespread frustration with politicians who do not deliver on promises to fight corruption and push through reforms. Asked about a possible coalition with Borisov’s GERB party, Democratic Bulgaria co-chair Hristo Ivanov said that governing a coalition requires a high degree of trust and mutual understanding. He added that, in his opinion, the coalition with GERB does not meet these conditions.

“We will rather look for a formula based on some kind of unity around specific priorities,” Ivanov said.

The other part of the reformist coalition, the We Continue to Change party, said it would also withdraw from the coalition agreement with GERB if Borisov remains at its helm.

“We keep changing,” which sees Borisov as a divisive figure and accuses him of promoting corrupt policies, proposed the formation of a minority government with the support of GERB, which rejected the idea.

After the vote, Borisov said that the only way out of the crisis is the wisdom of politicians. He said that Bulgaria must have a stable government “if we are not to commit suicide as a nation”.

“It will be a disaster for the country if it fails to form a ruling majority,” Borisov said, adding that he was ready to compromise.

Analysts predict that some compromise could be reached, and bitter opponents could find an alternative to the successive interim governments appointed by President Rumen Radev, a former military general, in the past few years that have quietly shifted the country’s orientation toward Russia.

Traditionally, many Bulgarians in this former communist country share a pro-Russian sentiment, which creates fertile ground for aggressive Kremlin propaganda and intelligence activities in the current NATO member country. The Russian invasion of Ukraine deepened divisions in Bulgarian society and increased support for pro-Moscow parties.

Exit polls show that the ultra-nationalist Vozrazhdane party, strongly opposed to any action against Putin’s Russia, is expanding its presence in parliament from 10% to 14% of the seats.