Industrial production rose 6.8% from the same month a year earlier in October, a deterioration from the 9.8% growth in September. October results were the worst performance since February 2021. This figure was mainly due to weaker growth in mining production. In addition, the production of electricity, gas and utilities declined more sharply.
Seasonally adjusted, industrial production fell 1.1% in October (September: +0.3% m/m), the worst result since May. Meanwhile, the trend was downward, with industrial production averaging more than a yearly low of minus 1.1% from minus 0.6% in September.
Commenting on the release, ING economists said:
“Polish industry was fairly resilient in Q3 2022 thanks to improved global supply chains, but October could be the last month of a significant annual increase in production. Overall production is expected to suffer from a high base in the coming months due to last year’s impressive (and hard to explain) output growth in the energy generation sector. “
FocusEconomics experts expect industrial production to grow by 7.9% in 2023, up 1.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2024, the panel expects industrial production to grow by 4.6%.