on Estimated risk per 23.11.2022 10:08:00
Census Bureau reports New home sales in October were 632,000 seasonally adjusted (SAAR).
The previous two months were revised down.
Sales of New Single-Family Homes in October 2022 seasonally adjusted annual rate 632,000, according to estimates released today jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.5 percent higher than September’s revised figure of 588,000 but 5.8 percent below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000.
The first chart shows new home sales compared to the recession since 1963. The dotted line is the current level of sales.
New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows the months of new home supply.
The record high level of shipments was 12.1 months in January 2009. The record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the upper end of the normal range (normal supply is 4 to 6 months).
“A seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of October was 470,000. This corresponds to an offer of 8.9 months at current sales levels.”
In October 2022 (red column), 48,000 new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51,000 homes were sold in October.
October’s record high was 105,000 people in 2005, and October’s record low was 23,000 people in 2010.
This was higher than expected, but sales for the previous two months were revised down. I will have more later today.