McManus: Biden interested in Ukrainian spring offensive

After a winter of hard but indecisive fighting, Ukraine is gearing up for a long-promised spring offensive that officials hope will turn the tide of the war against Russia.

The goal is to break Russian control over southern and eastern Ukraine and convince Russian President Vladimir Putin that his war has become a losing one.

US officials say that if Ukraine succeeds, Putin may eventually agree to peace talks on terms acceptable to Ukraine. But if Ukraine fails, the conflict is likely to escalate into a protracted war of attrition — and Putin has said time is on Russia’s side in that scenario.

The war also has a western front in the domestic politics of the United States and its European allies, who have provided Ukraine with the military and economic assistance it needs to survive.

If Ukraine succeeds, its Western supporters will feel justified. If this does not happen, political support in the West will weaken.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky not the only leader hurrying against the clock; President Biden too.

From a military point of view, “the longer you wait, [launch the offensive]the harder it will be,” Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analysis, said last month. “The more time is spent, the more Russian units will be able to gain a foothold.”

Politically, time is also not on Biden’s side. Public opinion in the US and Europe was generally supportive of Ukraine, but that support has waned as the war has become longer and more costly.

Biden often promised that the United States would support Ukraine “for as long as it takes” to defeat Russia. But it’s a promise he may not be able to keep — and not if he loses his expected re-election bid next year.

Experts say it could still be weeks before Ukraine’s military offensive. Much of the country is bogged down in the spring thaw, turning fields and country roads into a sea of ​​mud—hard terrain even for armored vehicles.

Reinforced with new tanks and armored personnel carriers supplied by the West, Ukraine will try to push Russian troops out of the south and east of the country.

One likely target would be the Russian-occupied southeast coast, a land bridge connecting Russia to the Crimean peninsula that Putin seized from Ukraine in 2014. The rupture of the bridge “will have a strong impact on the morale and motivation of Russians,” Douglas Luth said. , a retired Lieutenant General who served as US Ambassador to NATO.

Some of the Western equipment that Ukraine is counting on is only now arriving: heavy tanks from Germany and Britain, as well as armored fighting vehicles from the US and half a dozen other countries.

USA and European Union sending thousands of artillery shells from the newly mobilized weapons factories. And the U.S. is providing a new surface-to-surface missile, clumsily called a ground-launched small-diameter bomb, with a range of about 90 miles—longer than the missiles Ukraine now has, but still half as long as another country requested. . .

It’s not enough, critics complain.

“We’re providing the systems they needed six months ago,” Lute said. “War is not a mathematical equation. You need to give beyond measure.

“Now is the time to give Ukraine what it needs to avoid the political calendar next year,” he added.

In fact, the US political calendar has already begun.

Former President Trump complained that American taxpayers were helping Ukraine too much and suggested that he would end the war in 24 hours by letting Putin “take something.”

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis intervened, stating that it was not in our interests “to get even more involved in the territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia.”

A poll sponsored by the Associated Press found that the proportion of Americans who support military aid to Ukraine fell to 48% in February from 60% in May last year. The responses reflected a partisan split, with Republicans increasingly opposed to Biden’s policies.

The outcome of the spring offensive is likely to further influence public opinion.

“If this war turns into an exhausting war with no end in sight, it will become much more difficult to maintain Western support,” said Steven Pifer, a former US ambassador to Ukraine.

Putin’s calculation is that he can outlive both Ukraine and the West: the longer the war goes on, the more Ukraine will suffer and the more weary Western voters will become.

That’s why it’s vital that the US and its allies give Ukraine as much help as possible now, when it’s most useful.

Yes, the war cost the Ukrainians, who lost their lives and homes, much more than the American taxpayers.

But the best chance to get things done as soon as possible – and avoid a longer and more painful stalemate – is to make sure Ukraine has what it takes to convince Putin he can’t win.