Indonesian trade balance, October 2022

Merchandise exports rose 12.3% year on year in October (September: +20.2% year on year). The October result marked the slowest growth since February 2021. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 17.4% year-on-year in October (September: +22.0% y/y), the weakest performance since February 2021.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, posting a $5.7 billion surplus in October (September 2022: $5.0 billion surplus; October 2021: $5.8 billion surplus). Finally, the trend worsened, with the 12-month moving balance of merchandise trade recording a $50.0 billion surplus in October, compared to a $50.2 billion surplus in September.

Commenting on the outlook, Enrico Tanuvijaya, an economist at UOB, stated:

“We expect Indonesia to record a current account surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2022 before lower commodity prices, higher imports, a higher service deficit and higher primary deficit turn CA’s position into a deficit of around 0 .5% of GDP in 2023. “

Our experts predict that in 2023 exports will decrease by 2.5%, while imports will grow by 1.5%, and the trade surplus will be $39.1 billion. In 2024, FocusEconomics experts expect exports to grow by 3.4% and imports to grow by 4.3%, with a trade surplus of $38.4 billion.