House prices declined in January, “soon to fall below 0% by March/April”.

To Estimated risk per 03/06/2023 09:55:00

Today in the Calculated Risk Real Estate newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: House prices declined in January ‘to fall below 0% by March/April’

Brief excerpt:

Here is the HPI Black Knight chart. The index is still up 3.4% year-on-year but declined for the seventh consecutive month in January and is now 5.5% below its June 2022 peak.

30-year mortgage 10-year treasury

• House prices fell again in January, down 0.24% from December and a more modest 0.13% seasonally adjusted.

• This is the smallest monthly decline in seven months as interest rate cuts and higher affordability in late 2022/early 2023 reduced supply.

• Overall, home prices are now 5.5% below their June peak and a more modest 2.9% below their peak, adjusted for typical seasonal trends.

• Annual house price growth fell to 3.43% in January, more than a full percentage point below the 30-year average, and is expected to fall below 0% by March/April.

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