GDP of Thailand, Q3 2022

GDP growth accelerated to 4.5% year on year in the third quarter from 2.5% in the second quarter. The third quarter figure was the best result since the second quarter of 2021 and exceeded market expectations.

Growth reflected improvements in private consumption, fixed investment and exports on the back of rising tourist numbers. Household spending growth increased to 9.0% yoy in the third quarter, the best performance since the fourth quarter of 2012 (second quarter: +7.1% yoy). A marked acceleration in spending on durable goods led the rise, supported by an expansion in vehicle purchases. Meanwhile, fixed investment rebounded, rising 5.2% in the third quarter, as opposed to a 1.0% contraction in the previous quarter, supported by an increase in machinery and equipment investment and a recovery in construction investment. Government spending, meanwhile, worsened, falling 0.6% in Q3 (Q2: +2.8% y/y).

On the external front, exports of goods and services grew by 9.5% in Q3 (Q2: +8.5% yoy) supported by higher tourism revenues. Conversely, growth in imports of goods and services slowed to 8.2% in Q3 (Q2: +9.5% y/y).

On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.2% in the third quarter, compared with 0.7% growth in the previous quarter. The third quarter reading was the best result since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Commenting on the economic outlook, Enrico Tanuvijaya, an economist at UOB, said:

“We maintain our growth forecast for the Thai economy at 3.2% in 2022, double the rate of growth seen in 2021. tourism income that will continue to stimulate domestic trade activity, coupled with stronger export performance.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast experts predict that GDP will grow by 3.8% in 2023, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s forecast, and will increase by 3.9% in 2024.