Europeans now see enemy in Russia, not China, poll says

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron recently made separate but friendly visits to China, it caused considerable unease among their fellow leaders in Europe and Washington.

Especially considering the Beijing “unlimited partnershipwith Russia, attempts to treat China as something that Mr Macron, who has been called a “strategic and global partner” rather than a rival, have sometimes been met with scathing criticism.

However, an extensive public opinion poll published on Wednesday shows that Europeans I tend to agree with them.

Even as Beijing moves closer to Moscow, and despite the war in Ukraine, most Europeans still see China primarily as an “essential partner.” to vote over 6,000 people in 11 EU member states, held in April by the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The poll shows that the majority in all 11 countries are unwilling to support the United States against China if there is a military escalation between the two powers and would like to remain neutral.

At the same time, Russia is increasingly seen as an adversary or rival, a view shared by about 64 percent of respondents, up from about a third of respondents when the same question was asked. in the 2021 poll.

“Europeans clearly see the alliance between Russia and China and that it is formed against the West, but treat them differently,” said Jana Pulyerin, co-author of the report accompanying the survey. “That will only change if China supplies weapons to Russia.”

Indeed, 41% of Europeans would support economic sanctions against China if Beijing provided significant military assistance to Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, while 33% would oppose the move.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points in larger countries and plus or minus three percentage points in smaller ones.

While willing to work with Beijing on global issues like climate change, European leaders officially consider China a “systemic rival” and “economic competitor,” according to their “strategic compass” strategy document of the European Union.

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission: in speech took a hard line on Beijing in late March, saying it was entering a new era of “security and control”, pursuing a “divide and rule” policy, and that Europe should “remove the risks” of key sectors from dependence on China.

Her views are closer to those of the Biden administration, but European opinion is closer to Mr. Biden’s. Macron, Mr. Puglieri said.

still mr. Macron was widely criticized for his comments following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit in April, when he said that Europe should not be “followers” of Taiwan or “accommodate to the American rhythm and China’s overreaction.”

He said it would be “a trap for Europe” if it gets into crises “that are not ours”. Europeans should continue to develop their own strategic autonomy and become the “third pole” of the world order, and not risk becoming “vassals” in the US-China confrontation. Like Mr. Scholz, Mr. Macron downplayed any rivalry and said that China is a “strategic and global partner.”

However, while France and Germany are Beijing’s main partners, “the reality is that French companies have become disillusioned with the Chinese market, and the long-term picture of a Sino-French economic partnership looks bleak at best,” warned Philippe Le Corre. China specialist from the China Analysis Center of the Asian Society Policy Institute.

For him, the most important finding of the study is that French and German respondents view China rather negatively: only 31 percent of French and 33 percent of Germans see China as a “partner,” while 50 percent of Germans and 41 percent of French see China as a rival. or an opponent.

This seemingly leaves both leaders, even if more in line with European sentiment, in a more difficult situation at home, but may make it easier for Germany, in particular, to reduce its economy’s heavy reliance on trade with China, especially in the key auto sector. .

Elsewhere, Mr. Le Corret said Europeans are either “largely apathetic” towards China or wary of Chinese investment in European infrastructure, technology companies and the media. “Europeans don’t want more Chinese foreign direct investment – so much for the Belt and Road Initiative,” Mr. Le Corre said: referring to China’s desire to build ports, rail lines and telecommunications networks around the world..

Views on Russia have hardened, most consider Russia an adversary, and doubts about Moscow are growing even in traditionally sympathetic France and Italy, said Pavel Zerka, co-author of the report.

Approximately half of all respondents believe that even after peace in Ukraine, future relations with Russia should be “limited.” But in Bulgaria and Hungary, the majority of respondents viewed Russia as an “ally” or “partner” and would generally like to cooperate with Moscow after the war.

While views of the United States as an ally improved from 2021When Donald J. Trump was president, about three-quarters of respondents believe that Europe should reduce its security dependence on Washington and invest more in its own defense. About 56 percent of all respondents said Mr. Trump’s re-election would weaken the transatlantic relationship.

In general, ma’am. Pullerin said: “Europeans are ready to praise the transatlantic relationship and see more benefits than risks, but do not see that it comes with obligations. They don’t see that Taiwan is considered a fundamental part of the US strategy, or that it is tied to Ukraine, or to protecting the Pacific shipping lanes on which European trade depends.

“Few people realize that it would be problematic not to side with the US after they have invested so much in Europe,” she said. “They see neutrality as an option.”