Estimated Risk: Second Quarter GDP Tracking: 1% to 2%

To Estimated risk per 26.05.2023 11:58:00

From BofA:

Overall, today’s higher-than-expected personal income and spending, as well as durable goods printing, along with a wider-than-expected merchandise trade deficit, lowered our Q2 US GDP tracking from 1.1% qoq. sq. to 0.9% QoQ. [May 26th estimate]
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From Goldman:

Personal income increased as expected and personal spending increased more than expected in April. … Both total and core durable goods orders rose despite consensus forecasts for declines. The merchandise trade deficit widened much more than expected in April, due to a large contraction in exports and a more modest increase in imports. We have increased our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.1% (QoQ). [May 26th estimate]

And from the Altanta FRB: GDPNow

GDPNow model for evaluation real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent. May 26, up from 2.9% on May 17. Following recent releases from the US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, second-quarter real net exports and growth in real gross private domestic investment were partly offset by higher current forecasts for second-quarter real personal consumption growth and real government spending. in the second quarter. [May 26th estimate]