Estimated Risk: 1Q GDP Tracking: Around 2%

To Estimated risk per 31.03.2023 12:29:00

From BofA:

Personal income rose 0.3% m/m in February more than expected, after rising 0.6% m/m in January. Personal spending rose 0.2% m/m in nominal terms with a significant upward revision to January in both nominal and real terms. This increased our Q1 PCE tracking score. Overall, today’s personal income and spending has increased our Q1 US GDP Tracking Estimate from 0.8% qoq to 1.5% q/q saar. [Mar 31st estimate]
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From Goldman:

February’s core PCE price index rose 0.30% month-on-month, below consensus, while the annual rate slipped to 4.60%. … The spending details of today’s morning data turned out to be more solid than our previous assumptions, and we have raised our GDP estimate for the 1st quarter by 0.2 p.p. up to +2.4% (QoQ). [Mar 31st estimate]

And from the Altanta FRB: GDPNow

GDPNow model for evaluation real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 2.5 percent. March 31 compared to 3.2 percent on March 24. Following recent releases by the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts for first-quarter real personal consumption growth, first-quarter real gross domestic private investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth declined from 5.0 percent, -7 .0 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, to 4.6 percent, -7.3 percent and 1.7 percent. [Mar 31st estimate]