Did the yield curve predict a 2022H1 recession?


Figure 1: Projected recession probability from 10-year to 3-month maturity spread (blue), 10- to 2-year maturity spread (yellow), 10- to 3-month maturity spread, FCI-adjusted, 10 to 3-month maturity spread (green). All models are rated for 1986M01-2022M11. Peak-to-trough dates as determined by the NBER are in grey. The lilac shade denotes a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Red dotted line with 50% probability. Source: author’s calculations, NBEI.

A description of the probit models is contained in this mail. Note the low estimated recession probabilities attributed to the 2022H1 period, which contradicts the statement reader Steven Kopitz. On the other hand, a recession sometime in 2023H2 is quite plausible.