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Survey of Professional Forecasters – February

From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP: Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), CBO (blue), WSJ-January (brown), SPF-February (red), IMF-January (light green triangles), GDPNow (2/8/2024) (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, CBO (February),  WSJ (January), IMF (January), Philadelphia Fed, and Atlanta Fed (2/8), and author’s calculations. Note

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Recession risks fade in US – poll

WASHINGTON, D.C.: Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. And any downturn would likely result from an external shock — such as a conflict involving China — rather than from domestic economic factors such as higher interest rates. But respondents to a National Association

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2:00PM Water Cooler 2/12/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente. Patient readers, I am finishing up a post on California’s horrid new rule sending children back to school after one (1) day of symptomatic Covid infection, but it is proving more complicated than I thought. So, today there is no bird-song. Just a plant! Sorry! –lambert * * * Contact

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Maybank pegs Q3 start for rate cuts

MONETARY policy settings will remain tight in the first half of the year due to continued inflation risks, the Maybank Investment Banking Group said, with rate cuts only likely to start in the third quarter. “While our baseline forecast is for the monthly headline inflation to be stable in coming months, the low rice inventory

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Green energy auction set for August – DoE

THE government will conduct another auction of renewable energy (RE) projects in August in line with plans to shift from fossil fuels in the attainment of overall power security. The third Green Energy Auction (GEA-3) will focus on non-Feed-In-Tariff (Non-FIT) eligible RE technologies, which include geothermal and impounding and pumped-storage hydro, the Energy department announced

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India Needs More Federalism – The Diplomat

After Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented India’s annual budget early this month, leaders from the southern states protested over their falling share in the country’s tax revenues. The dispute appears poised to escalate in the run-up to parliamentary polls due in a few months, but it’s a rather old one. Although the five states of

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Inventory Down 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 11.4% Year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 2/12/2024 08:12:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.5% week-over-week. I expect inventory to bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 9th, inventory was at 495 thousand (7-day

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