Analysis: China’s Influence on Russia Grows Amid Fighting Ukraine

MOSCOW. It was a revealing moment during Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s well-planned visit to Moscow: standing at the door of the Grand Kremlin Palace, he told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the two of them were “watching changes that we haven’t seen.” more than a century later, and we’re pushing them together.”

“I agree,” Putin replied.

The remarks, captured by a Kremlin camera over a bodyguard’s shoulder, provided a rare glimpse into Xi’s ambitions and his relationship with Russia after more than a year of fighting in Ukraine.

As Moscow increasingly looks like Beijing’s junior partner, Xi is likely to offer Putin, his key partner in efforts to remake the world and limit US dominance, a reliable lifeline.

Xi’s unusually strong statement ended more than 10 hours of talks at the Kremlin that ended with lengthy declarations filled with florid rhetoric about expanding “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” between Russia and China, pledges to uphold a multilateral approach to global affairs, and criticism of Washington. .

In his closing statement, Putin hailed the Chinese proposal for a settlement in Ukraine, which the West has all but dismissed as untenable. The Russian leader has also launched a number of initiatives that have solidified his country’s role as a key source of energy and other raw materials for China’s giant economy. He offered to build new energy pipelines, invited the Chinese to fill the gap left by the departure of Western business, and promised to increase agricultural exports to China.

Xi has remained tight-lipped, avoiding any firm commitment to specific projects and mostly sticking to general and vague rhetoric about expanding ties.

“A lot of the things that Vladimir Putin would have liked didn’t actually happen,” Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese history and politics at Oxford University, told The Associated Press. “There was no moment when Xi said bluntly that he accepts the position of Russia in the war in Ukraine, and not the position of Ukraine.”

In fact, there was a “feeling that China reserves the right to refuse full endorsement” of Russia’s position, Mitter added.

Moscow and Beijing have said they will increase contacts between their militaries and conduct more joint maritime and air patrols and exercises, but there has been no hint from China of arms assistance to Russia, as the US and other Western allies feared.

Speaking before a Senate committee on Wednesday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said China has so far heeded strong US warnings against providing deadly material support to Russia in Ukraine. “We haven’t seen them cross that line,” he said.

A leading analyst with the Defense Intelligence Agency said Beijing wants to be seen as a peacemaker and diplomatic heavyweight.

“So I think China would be very reluctant to be seen openly supporting Russia with lethal aid,” said Doug Wade, head of the DIA mission in China. “It will undermine their entire story about their role in the world they are trying so hard to sell.”

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby called Putin and Xi’s relationship a “marriage of convenience” in which they join forces to challenge US leadership and the Russians are “definitely the junior partner.” At a briefing earlier this week, he added that Putin sees Xi as “kind of a lifeline” in the face of the fighting in Ukraine.

Many commentators have argued that the summit marked Putin’s failure to secure any concrete assistance from Beijing and cemented Russia’s increasingly subservient role in the alliance with China.

“China’s dominance over Russia is over,” Sam Green, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London, tweeted. “While there have undoubtedly been agreements that we should not be aware of, there are no signs of a significant increase in military support for Russia or even a willingness on the part of Xi to increase diplomatic support. Swing and miss for Putin.

After more than a year of fighting in Ukraine and the relaxation of Western sanctions, Russia’s dependence on China has increased significantly. Faced with Western restrictions on the export of oil, gas and other goods, Russia has shifted its energy flows to China and dramatically expanded other exports, leading to a 30 percent increase in bilateral trade.

Western price caps on Russian oil forced Moscow to offer it to China and other buyers at a deep discount, but despite these lower prices, the vast Chinese market ensured a steady flow of oil revenues to the Kremlin’s coffers. Isachenkov has covered Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union for the Associated Press since 1992. Associated Press contributors Michael Weissenstein in New York and Matthew Lee, Zeke Miller and Nomaan Merchant in Washington.

As long as Russia can trade with China and other Asian powers, it won’t face “the danger of running out of money or being forced to give in on the battlefield,” said Chris Weafer, CEO of consulting firm Macro-Advisory.

Capitalizing on Moscow’s stalemate, Beijing is sure to step up its support if it sees a dangerous weakening of Russia.

“The nightmare scenario for China is that the collapse of Russia militarily leads to the collapse of the regime and the establishment of some kind of pro-Western government,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.

Gabuev argued that Beijing was unlikely to provide direct military assistance to Moscow in the near future simply because it did not feel an urgent need for it. “Russia is not doing very well on the battlefield, but clearly not losing, so the need to support the Russian military effort is still questionable on both sides,” he said.

More than ammunition, tanks and missiles, Russia needs China’s help to circumvent Western sanctions in order to keep the flow of high-tech components for its military industry and other sectors of the economy. Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, predicted that China would act more forcefully to help Russia get them.

“Russia does not need weapons from China,” Markov wrote on his messaging app channel. “He needs chips and components, and they will appear.”

Some observers say that while Beijing is modestly backing Moscow, it has a vital interest in bolstering its ally so as not to be left alone in any potential confrontation with the United States.

Mikhail Korostikov, an expert on Russian-Chinese relations, said in a commentary for the Carnegie Endowment that China is closely watching how Russia faces massive Western sanctions. “For Beijing, carefully studying and partially using the tools and solutions used by Russia is a prudent course in a situation where a confrontation between China and the West looks inevitable,” he said.

Korostikov noted that while Moscow’s dependence on Beijing is growing, China’s room for maneuver is also shrinking.

“There is no alternative to Russia as a partner providing resources that China will badly need if its confrontation with the West escalates,” he said. “This helps to balance the situation and allows Moscow to hope that Beijing will not abuse its newfound economic leverage.

(Isachenkov has covered Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union for the Associated Press since 1992. Associated Press contributors Michael Weissenstein in New York and Matthew Lee, Zeke Miller and Nomaan Merchant in Washington)

Image Credits: Alexey Maishev, Sputnik, Kremlin pool Photo via AP