2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019

by Calculated Risk on 12/11/2023 12:47:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November with Comparison to 2019

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in November. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in November were mostly for contracts signed in September and October. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were in the 7.2% in September, and 7.6% in October, compared to the mid-6% range the previous year, closed sales were down year-over-year in November.

Active InventoryAnd a table of November sales.

In November, sales in these markets were down 9.4%. In October, these same markets were down 11.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in all of these markets are down sharply compared to November 2019.

This early data suggests the November existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, perhaps close to the cycle low of 3.79 million SAAR last month. This will be the 27th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

Note that the low during the housing bust was 3.30 million in July 2010.

Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/